A highly developed understanding of using trends and forecasting models can help your organisation monitor and improve its performance.

This Advanced Trends and Forecasting course has been specially designed to help those with a background in statistics or analysing trends to understand and utilise more advanced statistical models, to make better sense of their data.

By attending this Advanced Trends and Forecasting course, gain a better understanding of the concepts behind advanced forecasting; learn how to forecast long-term, short-term and mid-range trends, and handle seasonality.

Through using laptops, you will practice advanced trends and forecasting techniques on public sector datasets.

The only software needed is Excel.

About the Chair: Branko Pecar
Branko spent most of his career working for Emerson,  a global and one of the largest process control equipment manufacturing corporations. His last position was VP Educational Services. In the past, he also lectured at the University of Gloucestershire in several subjects, including quantitative methods and applications of Excel.

He published a series of books in statistics with a variety of publishers, such as McGraw Hill, Oxford University Press and Amazon. Almost all of these books are based around applying a variety of sophisticated methods using the simplest Excel syntax. He has been using Excel for over thirty years and has experience in applying it to numerous and diverse problems.

At present, Branko is working on algorithms for a Norwegian start-up, applying Fast Fourier Transforms to problems related to process safety valves. Currently, he uses Excel extensively as a modelling tool to validate some of the process assumptions required to optimize the algorithms.

 

09:15 - 09:45

Registration

09:45 - 10:00

Trainer's Welcome & Clarification of Learning Objectives

  • The purpose and challenges of forecasting
  • Mitigate the uncertainties that the future brings
  • Relationship with planning and decision making
10:00 - 10:45

Workshop 1: Understanding the Language of Forecasting

  • Understanding different average values (mean, mode, median, moving average)
  • Randomness
  • Stationarity
  • Linearity
  • Periodicity and Seasonality
  • Forecasting horizon
  • Accuracy and Precision
  • Correlation and causality
  • Regression vs. Univariate approach to time series analysis
10:45 - 11:00

Morning Break

11:00 - 12:00

Workshop 2: Short-term Forecasting Techniques

  • Predicting a single future value as accurately as possible
  • A distinction between stationary and non-stationary time series forecasts
  • Learn how to apply Moving averages as a forecasting technique
  • Understand the Exponential smoothing concept and learn how to apply it
11:00 - 12:00

Workshop 3: Mid-range Forecasting

  • Different approaches depending on time series
  • Apply Double moving averages method
  • Apply Double exponential smoothing method
  • Optimising forecasts using Excel Solver function
  • More on Prediction intervals
13:00 - 14:00

Lunch

14:00 - 14:45

Workshop 4: Long-term Forecasting (trending)

  • Learn how to calculate different Error statistics
  • Using Linear trend extrapolations as long-term forecasts
  • The use of Non-linear trends
  • Learn how to use different Excel methods to calculate and extrapolate trends
  • Constructing a Prediction interval
14:45 - 15:00

Afternoon Break

15:00 - 16:00

Workshop 5: Handling Seasonality

  • Different approaches depending on time series
  • Introduction to Classical time series decomposition method
  • Learn how to apply Holt-Winter’s method
  • Understand and be able to apply the embedded Excel ETS method
16:00 - 16:15

Feedback, Evaluation & Close

Branko Pecar

Statistics Consultant

Branko spent most of his career working for Emerson, a global and one of the largest process control equipment manufacturing…

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Central London

Q: Private: What are our billing details?

A: Company Name: Govnet Communications
Company Address: 3rd Floor, St James Building, Oxford Road, Manchester M1 6PP

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A: Unfortunately, we do not accept provisional bookings. Registrations are subject to our terms and conditions. View terms and conditions here

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A: Yes. Simply email enquiries@moderngov.com after you have booked the course, with your Purchase Order Number. Please quote your order number and the course you are booked onto.

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A: Special dietary requirements can be catered for, please ensure you include this in the further information box when registering your place. If you have forgotten to add this, you can also send your requirements to enquiries@moderngov.com or call 0800 542 9440. Please let us know as soon as possible so we can ensure your needs are met.

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A: You will receive the joining instructions and reminders, 6 weeks, 2 weeks and 3 days before the course date. Please check your spam box to see whether the joining instructions were sent there, if not please call 0800 542 9440 so we can have these sent to you immediately.

Q: What is your cancellation policy?

A: Cancellations must be received in writing 30 working days before the date of the event and will be subject to a £195+VAT administration fee. Cancellations received after this time will be subject to the full delegate fee.

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A: Why not contact a member of the UMG team on 0800 542 9440 or email enquiries@moderngov.com.